Cumpara de la libris.ro

Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway - Dan Gardner - Dan Gardner


Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway - Dan Gardner
13.5 Lei

Disponibil

(31-10-2024)
Cumpara de la libris.ro

Produs vandut de libris.ro

(0)

Review(s)

Verifica toate preturile pentru acest produs : click aici


Distribuie pe :


Descriere :

Cumpara future babble: why dan gardner de calitate.
Pe yeo poti sa gasesti cel mai bun pret pentru future babble: why dan gardner

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30.
Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The Future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near..
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly funny book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch.
Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict the Future confidently, and why it\'s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
And yet every day we ask them to predict the Future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack.
Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.
In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out.
In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world\'s fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed.
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30


Uneori, aceste descrieri pot contine inadvertente. De asemenea, imaginea este informativa si poate contine accesorii neincluse in pachetele standard.
logo

  • Produsele tale vor fi disponibile pentru toti clientii nostri, in fiecare zi, pe yeo.ro
  • Vor fi promovate pe retele de socializare si bloguri
  • De asemenea, vom crea continut video pentru 20 de produse