In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30.
Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The Future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near..
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly funny book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch.
Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict the Future confidently, and why it\'s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
And yet every day we ask them to predict the Future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack.
Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.
In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out.
In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world\'s fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed.
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30
